As the EBRD’s centre of gravity continues to shift southward with the expected accession of Lebanon as a member country by the end of the year, bank officials are starting to debate the inclusion of war-torn Syria. The idea of the bank taking on Syria — when the country remains entangled in a vicious civil war with no end in sight — would be the biggest long-term reconstruction job of them all.
But all wars end, and when this one does, the EBRD can expect a knock on the door. Would it consider making Syria into an EBRD member state — and perhaps the biggest sovereign beneficiary of them all? “God willing,” a senior EBRD official told GlobalMarkets, using the Arabic word InShaAllah and nodding their head in happy approval.
The idea raises the question of what the EBRD and development will look like in 10 years’ time —or indeed 20. What will delegates discuss at events like this — and more pertinently, from what countries will they hail?
It is an important question, given the bewildering speed with which the bank is changing. An institution set up in 1991 to manage the free market transition of former Soviet states, is ever more focused on nation states that are in no way European, yet which in the wake of the Arab Spring are desperate for advice and financing as they reconstruct and develop their tattered economies.
Since December 2011, the EBRD has channelled €4.79bn ($5.2bn) into 128 projects scattered across four nations — Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan — far removed commercially, culturally and politically from its original remit. Egypt and Morocco, it should be noted, are longstanding friends of the bank, having joined on day one, originally as donors, not recipients.
LENDING TO EGYPT
Since 2011 that quartet, comprising the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (Semed) region, has been handed an increasing share of the bank’s budget. In 2012, the EBRD apportioned €181m to Semed, or just 0.2% of its overall budget. By 2016, the respective numbers had risen to €1.37bn and 15%.
And still the numbers grow. Egypt, by far the biggest economy in this grouping of states, was the third-largest sovereign beneficiary of EBRD capital in 2016. Semed chief Janet Heckman told GlobalMarkets it would rise to second in the rankings this year, behind Turkey.
How long before a country of 92m people, with problems small, great and at times insuperable, tops the table? Two more ‘firsts’ were announced on Wednesday, with the EBRD unveiling its inaugural projects in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
The EBRD’s centre remains committed to former Soviet states, of course. It is re-engaging with Uzbekistan, supporting Kazakhstan’s privatisation plan, and remains committed to states from the Balkans to the Baltics.