A pair of Chicago-based sell-side analysts is urging investors to take gains in Sears, Roebuck & Co., which recently extended a four-month rally on news that the Chicago-based retailer intends to sell its credit card business to Citigroup.
Sears' 6.70% notes of '12 (Baa1/BBB) tightened over 40 basis points on news of the sale, and were bid at 95 over Treasuries through last Wednesday. The company's issues returned 20.9% through last Wednesday, versus 2.82% for the rest of U.S. high-grade, according to data from Merrill Lynch.
Sears has not clearly articulated its business strategy, according to Dave Novosel, head of research at Banc One Capital Markets. The credit card sale will cause Sears to lose a lot of operating income, he says, adding that Sears has an image problem in its apparel business, and will have to hope that its recent purchase of Lands' End can turn the tide. "It seems to me the most optimistic scenario has already played out," Novosel says, arguing that Sears' bonds will back up some 20 to 25 basis points.
Vince Boberski, strategist at RBC/Dain Rauscher, compares a pared-down Sears to J.C. Penney, a retailer that shed its credit card business several years ago and whose bonds are now much lower-rated and cheaper than those of Sears. Boberski urges investors to swap out of Sears and into the J.C. Penney 9% notes of '12 (Ba3/BB+), which were trading at 350 basis points over 10-year Treasuries last Thursday--a pickup of over 250 basis points.