RMBS Researchers Forecast Modest Increase In Volume Next Year

Researchers believe issuance of non-agency residential mortgage backed securities will increase modestly next year.

  • 31 Dec 2013
Email a colleague
Request a PDF

Researchers believe issuance of non-agency residential mortgage backed securities will increase modestly next year.

“Aggregate new issuance in prime jumbo, GSE risk-sharing, and single-family rental deals should be between $26 billion and $33 billion in 2013,” said Deutsche Bank analysts led by Steven Abrahams.

Bank of America projects $22 billion in non-agency issuance, with $12 billion in jumbo deals, $6 billion of risk-sharing deals from the government sponsored enterprises, and $4 billion from REO-to-rental transactions. Non-performing and reperforming MBS could add up to $15 billion more.

Total year-ahead figures may be in the $15-$20 billion range next year for non-agency MBS backed by new originations, according to Wells Fargo analyst Mark Fontanilla. That compares to $12.5 billion year-to-date, according to a report produced under research head Greg Reiter, a senior analyst at the bank.

Morgan Stanley analysts believe the outlook is set up for “alpha hunters,” as they described it in their outlook (SI, 12/3). They expect $15-$25 billion next year. “Our investment thesis for non-agency RMBS in 2014 is that it is set up for alpha hunters, driven by substantial variability in collateral performance and sensitivity to positive convexity potential across the non-agency universe. This will translate into substantial variation in returns, making bond selection more critical than it has been,” analysts James Egan, Vishwanath Tirupattur and Jose Cambronero said.

  • 31 Dec 2013

GlobalCapital European securitization league table

Rank Lead Manager/Arranger Total Volume $m No. of Deals Share % by Volume
1 Citi 3,691 11 20.69
2 Morgan Stanley 2,420 6 13.57
3 Goldman Sachs 2,096 5 11.75
4 BNP Paribas 1,686 6 9.45
5 Barclays 1,565 4 8.77

Bookrunners of Global Structured Finance

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 Citi 48,981.15 156 10.70%
2 JPMorgan 42,528.25 122 9.29%
3 Wells Fargo Securities 37,344.94 107 8.16%
4 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 34,673.03 110 7.57%
5 Credit Suisse 29,307.78 89 6.40%