RMBS Researchers Forecast Modest Increase In Volume Next Year

Researchers believe issuance of non-agency residential mortgage backed securities will increase modestly next year.

  • 31 Dec 2013
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Researchers believe issuance of non-agency residential mortgage backed securities will increase modestly next year.

“Aggregate new issuance in prime jumbo, GSE risk-sharing, and single-family rental deals should be between $26 billion and $33 billion in 2013,” said Deutsche Bank analysts led by Steven Abrahams.

Bank of America projects $22 billion in non-agency issuance, with $12 billion in jumbo deals, $6 billion of risk-sharing deals from the government sponsored enterprises, and $4 billion from REO-to-rental transactions. Non-performing and reperforming MBS could add up to $15 billion more.

Total year-ahead figures may be in the $15-$20 billion range next year for non-agency MBS backed by new originations, according to Wells Fargo analyst Mark Fontanilla. That compares to $12.5 billion year-to-date, according to a report produced under research head Greg Reiter, a senior analyst at the bank.

Morgan Stanley analysts believe the outlook is set up for “alpha hunters,” as they described it in their outlook (SI, 12/3). They expect $15-$25 billion next year. “Our investment thesis for non-agency RMBS in 2014 is that it is set up for alpha hunters, driven by substantial variability in collateral performance and sensitivity to positive convexity potential across the non-agency universe. This will translate into substantial variation in returns, making bond selection more critical than it has been,” analysts James Egan, Vishwanath Tirupattur and Jose Cambronero said.

  • 31 Dec 2013

GlobalCapital European securitization league table

Rank Lead Manager/Arranger Total Volume $m No. of Deals Share % by Volume
1 BNP Paribas 15,256 32 16.83
2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) 10,179 30 11.23
3 Citi 9,751 23 10.76
4 Lloyds Bank 7,329 24 8.09
5 JP Morgan 6,580 10 7.26

Bookrunners of Global Structured Finance

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 RBC Capital Markets 801.51 2 13.30%
2 Citi 783.55 4 13.01%
3 Wells Fargo Securities 606.78 3 10.07%
4 Credit Suisse 534.82 2 8.88%
5 SG Corporate & Investment Banking 497.64 2 8.26%