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Latest news
Deutsche Bank predicts $155bn of private sector CMBS
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Single asset, single borrower deals drove the US CMBS market in 2025, particularly on New York City collateral as office attendance rose. With interest rates predicted to fall further in 2026, market participants are looking forward to a greater variety of deals on commercial real estate from other cities and sectors, writes Pooja Sarkar
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Risk retention for single-borrower and single-asset commercial mortgage-backed securities deals is the industry’s biggest regulatory concern for the coming year, according to an informal survey of market participants by sister publication Real Estate Finance Intelligence.
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Fannie Mae has tentatively scheduled its next risk-sharing mortgage-backed securities deal for January. Meanwhile, Barclays’ head of residential and commercial credit strategy Sandeep Bordia is set to tell a Senate panel that the government sponsored enterprises should increase the pace of issuance and include riskier collateral in their future risk-sharing deals to meet investor appetite.
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Aeroporti di Roma entered the bond market as an unsecured issuer on Thursday, with a €600m no-grow bond that will partly refinance a 10 year old securitization. The success of the deal encouraged Ferrovie dello Stato, the state railway company, to press ahead with its own issue, also €600m.
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Goldman Sachs found enough investor demand to price all three tranches of its Italian CMBS, Gallerie 2013 Srl, at the tight end of — or inside — guidance. The deal has added to market expectations of even greater CMBS supply next year.
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The improving fundamental performance of European commercial real estate is expected to continue and move beyond prime properties and into second tier assets next year, according to Moody’s. The rating agency still expects, however, that the majority of outstanding CMBS loans maturing next year will not be repaid.
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Goldman Sachs found enough investor demand to price all three tranches of its Italian commercial mortgage-backed securities deal, Gallerie 2013 Srl, at the tight end of —or inside — guidance.
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Fitch Ratings is shining the spotlight on what analysts there say is a troubling new trend in the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. “Originators’ enthusiasm to maintain volumes are putting pressure on securitizations to come to market quickly, raising the risk of errors in loan oversight,” said Fitch managing director Huxley Somerville in a report Monday. -
The rapid pace of mortgage servicing rights transfers could slow next year as non-bank servicers digest their recent bulk purchases of banks’ riskiest loans, but rising interest rates are likely to precipitate an uptick in MSR sales for prime and agency-backed loans.
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The improving fundamental performance of European commercial real estate is expected to continue and move beyond prime properties and into second tier assets next year, according to Moody’s. The rating agency still expects, however, that the majority of outstanding CMBS loans maturing next year will not repay.
