In an interview with Emerging Markets, Georgia’s vice premier Giorgi Kvirikashvili said he was “totally against” the annexation and occupation of Crimea by Russia.
“We are also committed to the European Union-led attempts to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea,” he said. Kvirikashvili said it was “hard to say when we will get back the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
“In the longer term, I hope it will be possible to solve all territorial problems including our own and Crimea’s, but right now it will be unwise to engage in acute measures.”
He pointed to the country’s long history of struggling to settle territorial disputes with Russia. “Despite Russia’s invasion of our territory, we have decided not to use [any] hostile statement in our rhetoric,” he said.
The Baltic states would probably be most directly threatened if Russian president Vladimir Putin decided to extend his operations. Latvia’s defence minister Raimonds Vejonis has warned Russia against using “specially trained, professional provocateurs” to foment unrest in a country with a sizeable Russian-speaking population.
Analysts fear Lithuania and Estonia are particularly exposed. “The Baltic states are getting all of their gas from Russia,” said Marcus Svedberg, chief economist at East Capital, a specialist regional fund manger based in Stockholm. “These countries don’t really have an alternative. They are close to Russia, they trade with Russia.”
Many are now eyeing a run-off in Lithuanian elections slated for May 25, the same day Ukrainians go to the polls to elect a new leader. Dalia Grybauskaite is odds-on to retain power. She is also a staunch critic of Putin, and is widely viewed as friendly toward Europe.
Sovereign nations across the former Soviet Union, from the Baltic region and Georgia, to Kazakhstan and Moldova, boast significant Russian speaking minorities.
Even countries infuriated and even humiliated by persistent Russian meddling in their internal affairs have chosen to tread carefully, wary as they are of raising the hackles of the Russian bear.
Georgia’s tacit choice to adopt the submissive role in its relationship with Russia has born economic fruit but at a cost, Kvirikashvili admitted. Tourism has risen, but parity remains frustratingly elusive. “We allow Russians to enter Georgia, even though we aren’t allowed into Russia without a visa.”
Former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili’s pivot toward the West in the mid-2000s, which included an attempt to join Nato, came to nought when Russia invaded two Georgian provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in 2008.
Moscow recognised the disputed regions, which remain putatively independent, yet are widely viewed as being under Russian control. It is this process of slicing up countries, a now standard modus operandi whereby Russia effectively annexes a Russian speaking enclave within a sovereign nation, that keeps leaders across the former Soviet Union up at night.
Others countries have been careful to avoid provoking Moscow’s ire, but this may be harder going forward. Putin increasingly used to throwing his weight around and getting away with it — while boosting his domestic popularity ratings — can undermine his neighbours in many ways.