Turkey current account deficit narrows sharply
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Emerging Markets

Turkey current account deficit narrows sharply

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Turkey's current account deficit, a major headache for policy makers, shrank last year and came well below forecasts in December

The gap was $48.9 billion last year, sharply lower than 2011’s $77.2 billion, mainly due to a robust increase in exports of goods and services, central bank data showed.

Exports of goods totaled $163.3 million last year, up from $143.4 billion in 2011, while imports slowed to $228.9 billion from $232.5 billion.

Exports of services climbed to $42 billion from $38.6 billion, while imports were slightly lower at $20.2 billion.

Current transfers fell to $1.4 billion from $1.8 billion.

In December last year, the current account deficit was $4.66 billion, well below expectations of $5.4 billion in a Bloomberg poll of analysts and compared with $6.6 billion in December 2011.

The wide current account gap has been cited by numerous analysts and investors as the key worry about Turkey, as it exposes the country to risks associated with capital outflows should global investors become bearish on risky assets.


The latest figures show that the deficit-to-gross domestic product ratio fell well into the single digits last year, compared with a level of above 10% in 2011. But from here on, the cuts in the current account gap may no longer be that spectacular.

“Going forward, we expect the momentum of the improvement to fade as domestic demand recovers and gold sales to the Middle East should slow,” Klaus Baader, an analyst with Societe Generale, wrote in a market note.

“The central bank’s policy to limit lira appreciation and to keep credit growth under control should however prevent a major reversal in the current account dynamics,” Baader added.

In November last year, Fitch raised Turkey to investment gradeciting improving macroeconomic fundamentals. 

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