• Home
  • Home
  • Daily Papers
  • Awards / Events
  • GlobalCapital
  • Free Trial
Close

Copying and distributing are prohibited without permission of the publisher.

Watermark
  • Print

EBRD cuts forecasts for some CEE countries

By Antonia Oprita
26 Oct 2012

The bank maintained its overall 2.7% growth forecast for emerging Europe but revised down its estimates for some countries

The eurozone crisis continues to have a negative impact on economic performance in emerging Europe, which is likely “to live through another challenging year before any real recovery can start,” the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in a statement on Friday.

Growth in the transition region is expected to drop to 2.7% this year from 4.6% last year, before picking up “modestly” to 3.2% next year, according to the EBRD’s latest quarterly economic assessment.

The bank’s economists revised down their forecast for Ukraine, which is now expected to grow by just 1% in 2012, a 1.5 percentage point cut from the EBRD’s July forecast and compared to expansion of 5.2% last year.

“Ukraine is feeling the squeeze from both its two biggest markets, the EU and Russia,” the bank said.

 More from Emergingmarkets.org
 Emerging Europe currencies to outperform
 Russia: Wild is the wind
 CEE: Darkness to light
Forecasts for Slovenia, Hungary, Croatia and Serbia – all of which are in recession – were also revised down.

Slovenia’s economy is expected to contract by 2.5% this year and by 2% in 2012, Hungary is seen shrinking by 1.5% this year and posting just 0.4% growth next year, Croatia is forecast to contract by 1.9% but is seen rebounding by 1.2% next year and Serbia is set to shrink by 0.7% this year and grow by 1.1% the next.

POLAND TO SLOW

Poland’s growth is seen slowing to 2.5% this year, a slight downgrade from July’s 2.9% forecast and compared with last year’s 4.3% growth. It is seen slowing further to 2.2% next year. Slovakia is expected to grow by 2.7% this year and by 2.3% next year.

Romania is seen advancing by just 0.5% this year despite strong performance in the second quarter and by 1.9% next year. Bulgaria’s growth is seen at 1.2% for 2012 and 1.7% for 2013.

Russia’s growth is seen at 3.2% this year, a slight uptick from July’s forecast of 3.1%, and at 3.3% next year.

“The effects of the European recession are spreading further east,” the EBRD said. “As Russian growth slows down, weighed by the eurozone, economies of the Caucasus and central Asia – not closely integrated with the EU markets – might start feeling the pain.”

The pace of cross-border bank deleveraging slowed in the first half of 2012, with foreign banks’ capital flight easing in the first quarter as a result of the European Central Bank’s “massive liquidity operations,” the bank said, but added that the retreat picked up in the second quarter as the impact of the ECB measures waned.“Banks have tried to replace the loss in external funding by domestic deposits. As this has been only partially successful, real credit continues to contract in almost all of central and south-eastern Europe and the Baltics,” the EBRD said.
By Antonia Oprita
26 Oct 2012
  • HOME
  • GLOBALMARKETS
  • Latest news from GlobalMarkets

    1. EM debt pressures build as IMF calls for ‘early’ action on restructuring

      15 Oct 2020
    2. Post-Covid world will demand ‘new more humane’ capitalism

      15 Oct 2020
    3. IADB to roll out hurricane clauses as small state pleas gain traction

      15 Oct 2020
    4. IMF will need Bank’s help to fulfil climate ambition

      15 Oct 2020
    5. Biden victory to boost Asia but China tensions to remain

      15 Oct 2020
  • Most viewed: GlobalMarkets

  • Print
  • Latest news from GlobalMarkets

    1. EM debt pressures build as IMF calls for ‘early’ action on restructuring

      15 Oct 2020
    2. Post-Covid world will demand ‘new more humane’ capitalism

      15 Oct 2020
    3. IADB to roll out hurricane clauses as small state pleas gain traction

      15 Oct 2020
    4. IMF will need Bank’s help to fulfil climate ambition

      15 Oct 2020
    5. Biden victory to boost Asia but China tensions to remain

      15 Oct 2020
  • Most viewed: GlobalMarkets

Further reading

  • Taiwanese banks ditch IB-led loans over default fears, MoF guidance

    Syndicated Loans

    Taiwanese banks ditch IB-led loans over default fears, MoF guidance

  • MPs call on Bank of England to take lead by greening QE

    SRI / Green Bonds

    MPs call on Bank of England to take lead by greening QE

  • Ex-Morgan Stanley banker joins SC Lowy

    People News

    Ex-Morgan Stanley banker joins SC Lowy

  • UKEF backs biggest overseas infrastructure financing for Egypt rail project

    Emerging Markets

    UKEF backs biggest overseas infrastructure financing for Egypt rail project

Global Capital

All material subject to strictly enforced copyright laws. © 2020 Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC group

About Us

  • About us
  • Contact us
  • Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement

Connect with us

  • LinkedIn
  • @GlobalCapNews

Services

  • Advertise
  • Our partners
  • RSS
  • GlobalCapital Events
  • Events calendar
  • Social community

My Account

  • Renew
  • Subscribe
  • FAQ
  • Feedback
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookies

Quick Links

  • All League Tables
  • Bank Profiles
  • Bond Comments
  • Deals & Deal Pipelines
  • Polls and Awards
  • GlobalCapital Archive
  • Special Reports Archive