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Deutsche Bank predicts $155bn of private sector CMBS
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Single asset, single borrower deals drove the US CMBS market in 2025, particularly on New York City collateral as office attendance rose. With interest rates predicted to fall further in 2026, market participants are looking forward to a greater variety of deals on commercial real estate from other cities and sectors, writes Pooja Sarkar
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CMBS issuers are set to flood the primary pipeline with new offerings, including single asset deals backed by retail properties, in a sign that investors have yet to cool to the sector despite a stream of negative headlines around bricks and mortar retail. -
A $185m single borrower CMBS offering is in the market this week, backed by a loan that is part of a larger financing package for a California shopping mall owned by Simon Property Group, with the remaining debt expected to be packaged into future conduit deals.
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Morningstar Credit Ratings has identified the most vulnerable US CMBS loans with exposure to teen fashion chain Rue21, with $100m of CMBS debt said to be vulnerable to default if the company decides to close more stores.
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Multifamily CMBS underwriting standards have been slipping, according to JP Morgan analysts, as growing appetite from the government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) drives competition among agency and private label lenders.
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Goldman Sachs priced a conduit CMBS transaction on Friday, while issuers this week prepare to offer investors another $2.7bn of bonds in a busy run up to the annual CREFC industry conference in the first week of June.
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A $754m CMBS deal backed by a single loan secured by a portfolio of hotel assets hit the primary market this week, with demand for the highly leveraged deal reflective of the widespread bullishness in the wider fixed income markets, say sources.
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The four largest commercial mortgage servicers in the US are successfully battling a decline in the volume of outstanding CMBS loans by ramping up their involvement in deals from the government sponsored enterprises, said Morningstar Credit Ratings on Monday.
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Three single asset single borrower deals totalling nearly $1.5bn were placed in the US CMBS market last week, while another single borrower deal and a new conduit from Goldman Sachs have been added to a busy second quarter pipeline.
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US risk retention rules have created a more concentrated CMBS conduit market in the six months since the regulation was implemented, as mortgage brokers and investors favour larger lenders at the expense of smaller non-bank originators.
