Concern was rising over an imminent humanitarian crisis in Libya on Thursday as Western powers expressed growing confidence that the Tripoli regime would fall sooner or later.
Countries including Spain and France have begun looking at the need to unlock funds to be able to relieve the hardship being imposed on Libyan families caught in the middle of the conflict.
Before leaving for a meeting of Libya Contact Group governments in Abu Dhabi, Alistair Burt, a UK foreign minister, said there was “ inevitable progress [in the conflict] – you can’t put a timescale on it but the regime is finished”.
The mood of confidence comes despite pressure in Congress for Barack Obama to scale down US participation in the conflict and NGO concerns about the crisis’ humanitarian fallout.
“I’m hoping the crisis could be over soon because it is impacting significantly on the economy of Tunisia,” African Development Bank president Donald Kaberuka told Emerging Markets.
“It is significantly impacting on other neighbouring countries” and was reflected in the distressing sight of a “boat load of Africans that sank in the Mediterranean”.
As well as the military campaign, officials said financing for the rebels was on the agenda. Spanish Foreign Minister Trinidad Jimenez said he wanted to find a “financial mechanism to give the Transitional National Council a way to sustain the needs for the Libyan People”.
French foreign minister Alain Juppé said France would release Eu290 million-worth of frozen Libyan funds to the TNC, because “this money belongs to the Libyan people”. The contact group’s previous summit, in Rome, agreed to establish a temporary fund to help the TNC.
“We are probably in the final phase of the Libyan episode and soon it will be checkmate,” prominent Libyan exile Ashur Al-Shamis said yesterday.
Shamis said he feared for Tripoli, “the city without which victory cannot be claimed”.
Gaddafi’s military machine has been degraded and now “we have to help Tripoli implode peacefully”. Once Gaddafi has gone new institutions can be built. “We have to open a new page for Libya and not allow it to become a failed state,” Shamis concluded.
Aid agencies report great difficulties operating in Gaddafi-held Libya and it is too early for multilateral to get involved. Kaberuka told Emerging Markets: “The bank cannot get involved at this stage, because clearly we as financial institutions come in at the tail-end, when there is peace, so that we can help in the reconstruction of the economy and institutions.”
Delegates at the AfDB meetings in Lisbon have been wary about discussing Libya – especially the representatives of the many countries that have benefited from Gaddafi’s largesse over four decades. “Everyone is now saying they didn’t really get much from Gaddafi, but the reality is that several leaders are suffering from his funds being cut off,” commented a banker who declined to be identified.
“The situation could have been worse,” said British analyst John Hamilton. “The names of most of the Libyan investment funds’ many Africa-based subsidiaries have been notably absent from the sanctions lists compiled so far, possibly to save applying further pressure to Gaddafi’s poorer clients.”
Kaberuka insisted to Emerging Markets that claims about financial linkages between Libya and other African nations “have been grossly exaggerated.”
“Yes they have some investments in logistics, hotels, telecoms and some infrastructure, but frankly compared to investment from other parts of the world this is grossly, grossly exaggerated.”