The Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) is using the position of kingmaker that it gained in last week’s elections to demand assurances from the European Union on Kosovo.
Forces ranged behind Serbian president Boris Tadic would need SPS deputies’ support to form a pro-European government. In exchange the SPS – once led by Slobodan Milosevic, but now taking a more pragmatic approach to the western European powers – wants Brussels to promise not to sanction Kosovan nationhood.
The SPS urged Brussels to clarify its stance in the wake of the Serbia-EU Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), signed in Brussels on April 29 by deputy prime minister Bozidar Djelic. Parliament has to ratify the deal, a key step towards EU accession.
Branko Ruzic, executive committee president of the SPS, said yesterday in an interview with Emerging Markets: “We need clarification that the precondition [of ratification] will not be recognition of the self-proclaimed independence of Kosovo and we need a guarantee that Kosovo will not be invited without Serbia.”
At last week’s polls, the For a European Serbia coalition led by Serbian president Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party (DS) won 102 of parliament’s 250 seats. Tadic faces a battle for power with the combined forces of the Serbian Radical Party with 78 seats and prime minister Vojislav Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) with 30. Both these parties have said that they will not ratify the SAA.
Without the SPS’s 20 deputies, neither side can form a government. Ruzic insisted that his party will back whichever side can fulfil the SPS’s conditions on Kosovo, social justice and the continuation of the European integration process – although party leader Ivica Dacic has told journalists that talks with the radical DSS are far advanced.
The DSS claim that ratification of the SAA will be a de facto acceptance of Kosovo’s independence declaration – which the DS denies – and it is this point that Ruzic believes the EU needs to clarify.
Ruzic insisted: “It is in our best interests to become members of the EU and the majority of voters are in favour of moving ahead.”
Jelena Trivan, spokesperson for Tadic’s DS, told Emerging Markets that her party’s conditions for forming a government are “first, to continue the state’s policy towards Kosovo – and there is no difference here between the parties”, plus “ratification of the SAA and continuation of European integration”.
Trivan added: “We are very optimistic [...] based on the consultations we have had. We will have a pro-European government.”
Both sides reckon that it will be at least a month before a government is formed.
James Lyon, senior adviser (Balkans) at the International Crisis Group commented: “It is clear that [president Tadic’s] DS is committed to the SAA and to a programme that seems very pro-European. The SRS/DSS seem willing to turn their backs on European integration.”
While not excluding the possibility that the SRS and DSS’s anti-European rhetoric might be tempered by the realities of government, Lyon concluded: “There is a relatively high probability that they will lead Serbia to isolation.”
On the influence of nationalism in Serbian politics Lyon added: “If you look at the long-term trend, the number of nationalist deputies in parliament is dropping. But in order to achieve this Tadic has had to move far, far, far to the right – to the point that the SPS noted that he agreed with Milosevic on Kosovo policy.”