Construction work and traffic jams have become a feature of Tripoli life; mobile phones and even the occasional WiFi access have revolutionized business practices. “Libyans still don’t tend to answer emails, but get their mobile number and people will be happy to see you,” says a Western commercial attache.
Since the lifting of US sanctions in 2004, international companies have been moving back at an increasing pace. Starting with Occidental Petroleum, which recommenced production in 2005, a stream of oil companies have returned; the line-up now includes Shell, BP, BG, Total, ExxonMobil, Repsol YPF and RWE-DEA.
The post-sanctions US legation is based in the glitzy new Corinthia Bab Africa Hotel, but will soon move to a new embassy building.
The Corinthia’s popularity in a previously international five star-free zone has made it one of the world’s more difficult hotels in which to get a room. Many of those stalking the marble halls are looking for business leads – not least by teaming up with associates of the self-styled Revolutionary Leader (since 1969) Muammar Qadhafi’s children.
Reformer
Most prominent of this younger generation is Mohammed Saif al-Islam Qadhafi, the junior Qadhafi most apparently committed to economic reform and the one most Western chanceries still believe will take a leadership role, even if Muammar Qadhafi is on record as saying “I will not be succeeded by one of my children”.
Saif’s hand is seen behind the presence of a growing number of economic advisers and consultancies that have been invited to advise different parts of the administration, including Monitor Group, McKinsey and Adam Smith International.
Monitor Group has had a permanent team in Tripoli for two years, producing a National Economic Strategy, which was presented by Harvard professor and competitiveness guru Michael Porter – one of Saif’s big-name signings. This report has been tailored to Libyan conditions; Porter initially proposed that a free market could be created using the strengths of Qadhafi’s Jamahariya (State of the Masses) system. Under this governance model, citizens participate in revolutionary committees, whose decisions are relayed upwards to the General People’s Committee (GPC – cabinet).
The suggestion that the Jamahariya could evolve to promote market reforms was met with widespread incredulity. Porter this February commented that: “Hop-efully the system will get out of the way.”
His analysis seemed closer to reality when Porter added: “The mindset and the attitude has to change. Libya has traditionally been a conservative, risk-averse society. People did not believe change could happen.”
SIGNS OF CHANGE
Many Libyans complain that although many things have changed for the better – from the Jamahariya’s human rights record to its attitude to business – entrenched power-brokers continue to dominate the society and economy. A system geared towards foreign companies employing local agents and having to deal with an overweening bureaucracy is encouraging crony capitalism to replace the Socialist People’s Jamahariya’s values.
Porter’s advice has begun to produce some action. In February, the GPC announced the creation of the Libyan Economic Development Board (LEDB), based on his model. Saif al-Islam called it “a momentous step and one which will increase opportunity and prosperity... The LEDB has an important role to play in driving an entrepreneurial culture.”
Saif al-Islam’s presence at the launch highlights his influence over talk of reform – Libyan cynics who discussed the issue with Emerging Markets complain that talk was too rarely followed up by action. When a GPC reshuffle in January produced a reform-oriented government, this was interpreted as a success for Saif; so was the appointment of several key reformists to the board of the new Libyan Investment Corporation, which unites the five major foreign and domestic investment funds, with total capital of around $80 billion.
FAMILY AFFAIRS
Saif has been sidelining more conservative figures from the ranks of the revolutionary committees and advancing his claim to be the next Leader, but analysts say he has not yet freed himself from the shadow or control of his father. Qadhafi senior has given Saif a lot of scope, but still maintains loyal appointees in key positions.
Further, Saif’s pre-eminence among the Leader’s children is by no means assured. His younger brother, Mutassam, is moving upwards fast, having been appointed National Security Commission chief; he is said to be much harder than his brother and popular among the revolutionary committees.
Each of the other children has a sphere of influence – and they are often involved in bitter rivalries with each other. The 33-year-old Es-Saadi, who is infamous for footballing exploits at home and in Italy, is described as the “brains” behind a new initiative to set up an international free trade zone on the coast west of Tripoli.
His sister, Aisha, is a lawyer and political campaigner, recently married to the son of one of her father’s old lieutenants; she was on the defence team at Saddam Hussein’s trial and possibly has political ambitions of her own. Mohammed, a son by Qadhafi’s first marriage, is a telecoms magnate, and Hannibal has so far been more active as a European playboy than a politician at home. A younger son, Khamis, is said to be favoured by his father but has yet to emerge into the limelight.
In spite of the family’s varied interests and rivalries, analysts in Tripoli and abroad tend to agree that they ultimately control most that happens in Libyan politics, economics, business or reform.