EU accession ‘off table for 10 years’ as voter mood turns sour
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Emerging Markets

EU accession ‘off table for 10 years’ as voter mood turns sour

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EU accession was once a rite of passage for CEE states. Yet that era is now over, with many now believing that accession is dead

The dreams of an ever expanding European Union have been left in ruins in the wake of growing hostility against the accession of new members amid mounting anger over the failure of candidate countries to embrace reform, according to leading economists.

This anti-enlargement sentiment was thrown into sharp focus last month when, in a national referendum, voters in the Netherlands rejected an EU partnership deal to remove trade barriers with Ukraine.

“The tide is against any country that does want to accede to the EU,” said William Jackson, an emerging market economist at London-based Capital Economics.

“It will be a long process, and there is no clear political appetite among existing EU member states to expand the bloc from its current size. Accession is off the table for the next five years, even the next 10 years.”

This is in stark contrast to recent history when the path to full inclusion in the European Union was clear and simple. Nation states from Poland to Croatia cut corruption, embraced private capital, and were admitted to the European project.


ELECTORATE SAYS NO

But experts warned that that era was now likely to be over. Accession may not just be a long and hard slog for nation states still outside the fold — it may not happen at all.

Timothy Ash, head of CEEMEA desk strategy at Nomura, put the death of the promise of accession in a stark light. “When any country is being judged on their candidacy, some nation state inside the EU, whether it’s Holland or Austria or Denmark, will have a vote, and their decision will be a hard ‘No’,” he said.

“There is no mood for enlargement, whether that means admitting Serbia or Turkey or Ukraine or anyone else.”

This has left the continent’s leaders with a big problem. On the one hand, the promise of EU membership has “long been a key driver of reform around the [wider] European region,” said Peter Sanfey, an economist at the EBRD focusing on the western Balkans.

“Reforms create growth, and lead to a better business environment and a better standard of government.” But take away the promise of accession and, many fret, the willingness to implement painful reforms will drift too.

Some argue this is already happening. Despite being a candidate for EU membership since 2005, Macedonia is no closer to inclusion now than it was 11 years ago.

Last month, it emerged that EU officials were considering slapping sanctions on the country in response for alleged repeated government violations of EU law.

Greece, which is locked into a dispute over the name of the country, has long thwarted Macedonia’s candidacy, slowing the pace of reform.

The same is true for Serbia, whose open desire for EU inclusion has in recent years been stymied by several member states including Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania.

“Serbia targeted accession by 2020, and it was always assumed that in seeking to join, Belgrade was choosing the EU and reform over its desire to reassert control over Kosovo,” said Ash. “If there is no EU then, why, many Serbs will feel, are they giving up on Kosovo.”

The EBRD’s Sanfey was adamant that accession to the EU fold by nation states still out in the cold — the list also includes Montenegro and Albania — was a fait accompli. “They will absolutely all join,” he said.

But others are not so sure. “I’m a great advocate and supporter of accession,” said Nomura’s Ash. “But it’s over. There is no chance of any other country joining the EU.”



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