Investors learn to love appreciating renminbi

Few market developments have captured the interest of Asian investors as much as the opening of the offshore renminbi market. The market has grown at a rapid rate over the last year, and fund managers, high net worth individuals and bank treasurers have all spent the last year fighting for deals.

  • 11 Jul 2011
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Many investors still see the appreciation of the renminbi as being the big draw of the CNH bond market. But some accounts — as revealed in the following discussion — already regard the offshore RMB as a true credit market.

But investors still see room for development in the CHN market. They want to see a liquid swap market develop, they want ratings and they want to get exposure to longer maturity deals. These things would all improve the health of the market and make it a more attractive place for companies to fund.

Investors still lack the power to truly dictate where deals should price, and until issuance volumes really swell, that is likely to remain the case.

But that does not scupper their excitement about the market, as the following roundtable discussion demonstrates.

Participants in the roundtable were:

Herman van den Wall Bake, head of global risk syndicate, Asia, Deutsche Bank

Sean Chang, investment director, HSBC Global Asset Management

Ken Hu, deputy chief investment officer, BOCHK Asset Management

Augusto King, co-head of debt capital markets, Asia, Royal Bank of Scotland

Arthur Lau, head of fixed income, Asia ex-Japan, PineBridge Investments

Chao Li, syndicate, Asia Pacific, Royal Bank of Scotland

Gina Tang, head of debt capital markets, Hong Kong and China, HSBC

Mason Wu, managing partner, Prudence Investment Management

Matthew Thomas, editor, EuroWeek Asia

EUROWEEK: How much does your investment strategy depend on currency appreciation, and if the currency stops rising will this market shut down overnight?

Ken Hu, BOCHK AM: It is more than simply currency appreciation. Offshore renminbi bonds offer other benefits. One is diversification, another is low volatility. We have conducted a study on 40 currencies over the past five and 10 years respectively, and found that renminbi had very low or even negative correlations with other major and emerging market currencies. Renminbi was also the least volatile among the currencies in our study. In this respect, the yields of the Chinese government bonds were less volatile than those of G7 and emerging market local currency bonds in the same periods. Thus, renminbi can serve diversification purposes.

Sean Chang, HSBC GAM: It really depends on how you define your objectives. If your investment base is mainly in Hong Kong, you can look at the renminbi as an alternative to Hong Kong dollar investments. The rates of interest on offer in Hong Kong are very low, so it is already a good alternative and does not need to be a currency play. But if your investors are from overseas, it’s a different story.

Hu, BOCHK AM: I agree. For some years, renminbi appreciation has been a hot topic. But if investors compare renminbi to Singapore dollars, Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah, they can find that the appreciation of renminbi is much smaller. Hence, the renminbi appreciation, on a stand-alone basis, may be less attractive to non-US dollar or non-HK dollar-based investors. However, renminbi would attract the attention of international investors who seek for diversification and low volatility.

Augusto King, RBS: It is interesting that Ken brought up the volatility perspective. But to what extent does lower volatility have to do with the controlled currency? Would volatility dramatically change if China opened up the capital account?

Hu, BOCHK AM: It’s a very good question. My view is that the Chinese authorities will take a gradual approach in opening up the capital account. They have a sound track record of making gradual changes. I expect they will continue to adopt this gradual approach.

Japan shows us an example. After the Second World War, the Japanese yen was pegged to the US dollar at ¥360. This currency peg was kept in place until 1971. Since then, the yen appreciated significantly to a level of as strong as ¥120 in the early 1990s, contributing to prolonged recessions in Japan for the following many years. The Chinese government may learn a lesson from Japan. I cannot predict when China will open up the capital account. It is very difficult to make any guess on the timing. I would rather look at the trend, and in this case, the trend of internationalising renminbi is optimistic.

Arthur Lau, PineBridge: Some investors do not think that currency appreciation is the name of the game. They want to hedge that, to be honest. There are certain groups of investors out there who are concerned about currency volatility, either ups or downs. The NDF market is pricing in around 1.5% renminbi appreciation against the US dollar next year. But some people believe in the near term the renminbi will depreciate, rather than appreciate. So it is not a one-way bet.

To your question as to whether we can put the currency play aside, and still meaningfully play the offshore renminbi bond market, I agree with Sean: it all depends on the mandate and the investment objectives. Some people want diversification, for sure. Others might be hedging their revenues. Some of investors are purely opportunistic. It really depends what we are looking at.

In my view, the CNH market is neither a currency market nor a rate market, it’s a credit market. If you look at the cluster of bonds out there, the average duration is 2.5 years. There is not much duration risk there, and we don’t have effective hedges for interest rate risk in the longer term, so we stick to the short-term, and that means it is really all about the credit.

Mason Wu, Prudence: Our investment strategy focuses on credit research and portfolio management, not on currency appreciation. We are seeing a greater variety of issuers coming to the market now, which is very welcome. It’s not just high grade — we have also seen some high yield issuers. For those investors comfortable in the credits, it is a good way to pick up so yield in a very low-yield environment. It is a good asset class for people to be in.

EUROWEEK: Herman, does the notion that this is a credit market rather than a currency appreciation play tally with your experiences working in debt syndicate?

Herman van den Wall Bake, Deutsche: It may not be a credit play for everybody, but it is for a large enough group of investors. But there are different standards in the dollar and CNH markets. We have seen deals getting done in CNH that would be difficult, if not impossible, to get done in dollars. For example, deals without ratings or with covenant-lite packages.

Issuers will, for the lack of a better word, be lazy when they can be. If investors let them get away with covenant-lite packages, that’s what they will do. If investors start demanding more, then issuers will do what they have to. We need there to be a bit more equilibrium between buyers and sellers. If we have a ton of sub-par credits doing deals with covenant-lite packages, we will all have to pay the bill collectively. When we start seeing failed trades, we will see some discipline in the market.

Lau, PineBridge: The market does not always work for all investors, whether they are looking at the currency appreciation or credit plays. The market appeals to certain groups of investors in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong. But outside of these areas, it is a tough sell. Look at the appreciation of the Singapore dollar against the renminbi. You cannot appeal to Singapore investors with the currency appreciation angle. We need a more developed market to sell to a greater number of investors.

Hu, BOCHK AM: The offshore renminbi bond market can add value to investors through credit diversification. This market is bringing in more domestic Chinese issuers who have not issued bonds in US dollar or other international bond markets. While investors are familiar with the names of issuers from Asia, Europe and the US, the offshore renminbi bond market brings in new names. For investors who want to achieve credit diversification but do not want to have any renminbi exposure, they can hedge against the currency risk through investing in the offshore renminbi bond market. In fact, investors could enjoy hedging income if they hedge the renminbi against the US dollar. But of course, investors may need to pay attention to the counter-party risk, hedging tenors and instruments.

EUROWEEK: Is that one area of the market that still needs a lot of development: the ability to properly hedge your currency risk?

Lau, PineBridge: At the moment, it makes no sense to hedge your currency exposure. The market perception is that you are giving up at least 150bp. The average yield on CNH bonds is less than 3%, so you are hedging out half of your return.

There are some key areas that need to develop. We think the average credit quality of the CNH universe is around the double-B area. That may not be ideal for some of the international investors. For the market to develop further, we need to see more international names and more rated issues, on both the issuer level and issue levels.

Investors have had to relax their investment restrictions somewhat to get access to this market, accepting issuer level ratings rather than issue level. They have little choice, since the market does not have any issue level ratings at the moment. But when the market grows and we get more blue chip names coming, and other companies coming with a rating, they can actually differentiate themselves effectively. That would help issuers and investors.

We now have too many deposits chasing too few investable bonds.

EUROWEEK: We have seen quite a few international issuers sell CNH bonds, but if they choose to swap the proceeds back into dollars or another currency of their choice, they’re not getting a competitive level of funding. Why would international issuers want to sell CNH deals? Is it just a question of profile?

King, RBS: The key driver is not visibility to most of them; it is what they will really use the renminbi for. It is about getting the money back into China. This is one of the rare markets where, when DCM bankers go to pitch, we talk about the regulatory environment more than anything else. That really is the main drag on issuance so far. The PBOC has so far not been very clear on what it is going to approve and what it’s not going to approve, and that bothers a lot of international issuers.

Gina Tang, HSBC: From the Chinese regulator’s viewpoint, their agenda on internationalising the renminbi is to ensure that renminbi is used more productively in the offshore market. They will allow a certain degree of offshore renminbi to recycle back into China, but market participants also need to work to make sure there are more uses for renminbi offshore, whether that is trade settlement, or mergers and acquisitions. This is the other angle international issuers should look at.

Hu, BOCHK AM: That is right. We should see the offshore RMB as a hard currency, instead of simply focusing on channelling the offshore renminbi back to China. Indeed, I foresee that the offshore renminbi will be increasingly used as a hard currency in the offshore markets for trade settlements, investments and M&A activities.

King, RBS: We have done deals that are entirely used for trade settlement offshore. But the majority of people are still looking at the market against the cost of renminbi financing onshore, so the interesting thing is when they can get the money across the border. We have had numerous discussions with people about keeping the money offshore, including in M&A situations, but the multinationals in particular are still trying to get the money onshore to fund their capital expenditure. Crossing the border is still the key for a lot of issuers.

Lau, PineBridge: Crossing the border is the hurdle we will need to overcome to move the whole market to the next stage. Corporations have a very hard time getting any financing longer than one year in the mainland. This can be mitigated in Hong Kong. We have much longer maturities already. That is a good thing, but how can we develop that? Investors would love to see longer maturity deals.

Bake, Deutsche: But if you were, for instance, seeing an interest rate differential [between onshore and offshore renminbi bonds] of 300bp-400bp in the short end, would you be happy maintaining that differential for a longer period?

Lau, PineBridge: Everything has a price. That is my usual response. But if you look at the US dollar market, people still buy bonds of 30 years, or 40 years. There should not be a big difference for CNH, especially if you’re talking about M&A financing. I would prefer to see a company selling a longer maturity deal that matched their assets, rather than take the refinancing risk every two years. That is not healthy.

Wu, Prudence: Longer tenors at the right price would be more welcome when the market is more mature. There are a lot of companies looking at it but there seems to be a lack of investor demand at this point.

King, RBS: This is good news. Investors are prepared to look at duration?

Lau, PineBridge: We would certainly be interested. I don’t know why it hasn’t happened already.

Wu, Prudence: Longer tenors at the right price would be more welcome when the market is more mature. There are a lot of companies looking at it but there seems to be a lack of investor demand at this point.

Li Chao, RBS: We have had a lot of discussions about this. But convergence risk is one key hurdle: do people expect the CNH market to merge with the CNY market in five or 10 years time? If that happened, investors could get much higher returns in CNH. Would investors demand more because they’re worried that the currency could become convertible in five years time, giving them access to much higher returns onshore?

Chang, HSBC GAM: To some extent, there is still an issue of convertibility. People have to wonder whether in 10 years time this will be a convertible currency. But if you look at CNH in short dated tenors, it is no different than any other currency. There are no restrictions over you exchanging into any other currency in Hong Kong.

Longer dated bonds could be sold if the price is right. You could sell them to two main groups of investors: the genuine investors who are interested in taking longer exposure, and those who need to hedge their longer-term liabilities.

Hu, BOCHK AM: Some institutional investors, like the insurance companies selling renminbi denominated policies in Hong Kong, need long maturity renminbi bonds to hedge against their long term renminbi liabilities. If the yields of long maturity renminbi bonds are higher than the yields of liabilities and their credit profiles are sound, those bonds could be bought and held to maturity for asset-liability management purposes. In such cases, the insurance companies in Hong Kong may need long maturity offshore renminbi bonds.

Wu, Prudence: A lot of new investment products in Hong Kong will be denominated in renminbi. It is very difficult for those companies selling investment products to offer high yields, because there is no real maturity mismatch they can do. If we start to see longer dated bonds, the maturity mismatch can make investment products more attractive. That will help develop the offshore renminbi market.

Lau, PineBridge: That’s right. The proportion of renminbi deposits accounting for the total deposits in Hong Kong is growing to a level that’s very meaningful. We may think three month Hong Kong dollar deposits are short dated, but they are not: most people roll them over again and again. The situation is likely to be the same with renminbi accounts. The deposits will be very stable over the time, even if we talk about them as short dated. That makes it likely some of these depositors will want to lock in 10 year rates.

EUROWEEK: Do you want to see more floating rate bonds offered in the CNH market?

Lau, PineBridge: We have no real interest rate swap market, so floaters are quite challenging. The absolute rate level is low, and we expect it to keep low. For most of the bonds we are seeing at the moment, it does not really matter. We see two or three year bonds. They are only resetting four, or six times. That is not very significant.

Chang, HSBC GAM: We would need a more developed interest rate market before we can see how far floating rate bonds can develop.

Bake, Deutsche: I think everyone would love to see Shibor-based coupons or a CNH swap curve in Hong Kong to price against.

Chang, HSBC GAM: The market is moving in the right direction. It compares to any other local bond market when it gets started. The only difference is that the pace of development in this market has been quicker. At the moment, people still prefer fixed rate instruments.

EUROWEEK: What other areas of the market do need to develop?

Chang, HSBC GAM: We need rating systems in place. The credit agencies are at work to implement rating systems in the CNH market, which we welcome. Some of the credit agencies have joint ventures in the mainland they can use to help speed up their ratings procedure in the CNH market, but still they are two different markets. People need ratings in place to differentiate better between credits, and it will make it easier for regulators.

Lau, PineBridge: Sadly, while we have tried to do away with ratings, we still need them.

Tang, HSBC: There has been quite a bit of supply of unrated issues this year and that may give some leverage to investors.

Lau, PineBridge: That’s right. Some of our investors are more forgiving about ratings, allowing unrated mandates, and of course if people are really serious about the CNH market at the moment, they cannot have ratings restrictions. But if we want to see the CNH market become an international market, they we need to have some infrastructure in place — and ratings are an important part of that for now.

Wu, Prudence: It may be time for a new entrant in this market on the rating agency side. Some Chinese rating agencies may enter the CNH space and develop their own view. We would do our in-house research, rather than rely on the rating agencies.

EUROWEEK: We have seen an increasing amount of pulled deals over the last few months. Are investors becoming price-setters now?

Hu, BOCHK AM: The offshore renminbi bond market is a very new market. It is not surprising to see that its price discovery process could involve more interactions with investors. Indeed, we have been working closely with some banks to exchange views on pricing, tenors and credits of offshore renminbi bond issuances. We find that the investors who are more familiar with the onshore capital markets may have a different understanding of the credit risk of non-rated Chinese issuers. For example, some non-rated first-time Chinese corporate issuers in the offshore renminbi bond market have built up good track records in the onshore bond market and/or acquired good access to banking facilities. Our expertise in the onshore bond market helps us better understand those non-rated first-time Chinese corporate issuers in the offshore bond market. That means we are more flexible in accepting first time issuers or deals without credit ratings. As the number of Chinese asset managers and their AUMs in the offshore renminbi bond market are increasing, the price discovery process could be quite different from that in the past.

On a broader sense, the dim sum bond market would compete with Asia’s US dollar bond market in terms of attracting both Chinese and foreign issuers.

Chang, HSBC GAM: The dollar investor base is much broader, and investors can demand those credits with ratings or good credit profiles. But in the CNH market, investors are still learning. We are still in the initial phase, and as long as there are investors in place issuers will try whatever they can to avoid some of the constraints we would impose on them elsewhere. The investment community needs to pay attention.

Lau, PineBridge: We are price takers at the moment, because the demand for CNH-related products remains very high. We are already talking about some structural arrangements. Some banks are working with us on private placements to get the exposure we want, but as Sean said, issuers will always try to minimise their costs, including covenants and even documentation. We cannot fight this at the moment. Investors far outnumber issuers. But we can wait until the market matures a bit more. At the moment, we are happy to say no to deals.

EUROWEEK: How many investors do you need to execute a Rmb1bn-Rmb2bn deal? We have seen some deals with a lot of accounts, but can you get deals away with only a handful of investors.

Bake, Deutsche: It very much depends on the credit. Strong names — like supranationals — you could sell to only a handful of accounts. But credit-intensive names need a greater spread of investors.

EUROWEEK: How active is the private placement market?

Chang, HSBC GAM: People are trying to get their hands on credits, so private placements will always be a good channel to get a better allocation than you could in the public markets. But a lot of issuers might prefer a broader set of investors.

Tang, HSBC: That is definitely the case. Issuers want to see broader investor participation, especially those well known issuers.

EUROWEEK: When you look at potential deals in the CNH market, to what extent are you comparing the yields on offer to those from the same company in the dollar bond market?

Lau, PineBridge: We take everything into consideration. As I said, we see this as a credit product, so we have analysts looking at everything. Especially because we don’t have ratings, we need to do our own credit analysis. We also try our best to compare it to the US dollar curve. But in my view, all CNH bonds are overpriced! They’re so expensive. It’s a very technical market at the moment.

Bake, Deutsche: It depends how you look at it. Some of the yields on offer look very tight, but then if you swap them back to US dollars, you get a very good spread.

Li, RBS: That’s right. Look at the high grade corporate paper out there. If you bought that and swapped it into dollars, you would get a very good level. We can set aside the question of whether or not you can actually do the swap.

Hu, BOCHK AM: It’s a brand new market, and there are usually a lot of inefficiencies in a new market. I agree with Herman that we need to gauge relative values against the US dollar after swaps to exploit the inefficiencies. It is not a question of whether we can do the swap or not. We can still use it to gauge relative values. Besides, it is helpful to seek reference from the onshore bond market to figure out the relative values of the Chinese corporate bonds in the offshore bond market. The Chinese investors who have investment experience in the onshore bond market may have better understanding of the credit risk of non-rated Chinese bond issuers.

Wu, Prudence: We do look at relative value compared to the dollar bond market. But it is very difficult as it is still a very technical market, and a lot of factors need to be taken into account. Momentum is just as important as credit assessment at the moment.

Bake, Deutsche: We also need to remember there are different investor bases that look at these yields very differently. The low yield bonds like MTR Corp are targeting those macro funds that want an FX and rates play. Obviously in this case, the rates are so low that it’s not a rates play, it’s just an FX play. But the key for them is avoiding any credit risk. For most of the investors around this table, it is more of a credit play. You need to know who to target. You have different audiences for different products.

EUROWEEK: How often are you taking positions in the secondary market? Is that possible to do in size?

Wu, Prudence: We are quite active in the secondary market as well. It is possible to do in size for some deals. We do expect the secondary market to develop more.

Lau, PineBridge: Secondary market liquidity has already improved significantly since last year. Some of our counter parties can offer better liquidity than others. In the US dollar market, the difference between different banks is very small when it comes to offering secondary market liquidity, but in the CNH market you can see quite meaningful differences.

Bid/offer spreads have tightened, especially on those bigger deals. It is still not at the level of the US dollar bond market, but it has improved. It is still not at the level we want it to be, but it is improving.

Bake, Deutsche: It’s almost more liquid than the dollar market, because it’s more stable. Traders can provide liquidity because if they get lifted or hit, the market does not move away from them. Our trades provide runs that show big ticket sizes on both the bid and offer side. It’s two-way.

Hu, BOCHK AM: Some banks have become much more committed to making a market, putting more names on their run and increasing sizes on both their bids and offers. The liquidity has definitely improved over the last year.

EUROWEEK: Will the creation of a clearing bank in Singapore, or even London, give a big boost to liquidity?

Bake, Deutsche: The growth of the deposit base in Hong Kong is mainly down to trade flows at the moment. I don’t know how much trade is taking place between China and the UK that could be denominated in renminbi, and most of that right now is flowing through Hong Kong anyway.

Hong Kong has a natural advantage that it will maintain. This will remain the hub for offshore renminbi, whether or not other centres open up.

Lau, PineBridge: I agree. You need some fundamental reason to support a market, and trade is one of the most natural reasons. Maybe when renminbi becomes fully convertible, we will have trade settlement in renminbi in the Middle East, Europe and across the world. Then as deposits grow in other countries, Hong Kong will lose its importance. But that is not going to happen any time soon. It will be good to see the offshore renminbi market develop elsewhere, but Hong Kong will remain one of the key centres.

Wu, Prudence: This should help liquidity and Hong Kong will be the key. There might be some niche areas other markets can capture, but the wider market will stay centred around Hong Kong.

EUROWEEK: The Chinese government has sold its own deal, and is now coming back to the market, setting a benchmark for other borrowers. Will that make a difference to supply over the next six months?

Bake, Deutsche: It is relevant as a validation point. A government bond that is fully placed, fully bedded down and trading very technically is no longer very relevant. But a fresh, benchmark sized offering across the curve presents new pricing points that will be relevant for the next three to six months. It will mainly help the very high profile borrowers price their own deals effectively.

Hu, BOCHK AM: It would be helpful if the Chinese government can announce a regular issuance calendar. Other Chinese quasi-sovereign entities could also help by developing offshore quasi-sovereign yield curves.

Li, RBS: It would definitely help. There are not many comparables you can look to know when pricing a five or 10 year bond. Once we have the government bond curve set, then the policy banks can create their own curve, and then you can start doing a lot more in the CNH market. At the moment, you can only look at onshore government bond yields, which to a great extent doesn’t matter. A lot of corporate bond issues in the CNH market are pricing inside the onshore government bonds.

Chang, HSBC GAM: There are two big issues when you’re trying to price a bond: the curve, and the credit risk. The government could help create a curve, which is especially important without a swap market. But the majority of investors do not think the government curve is too relevant at the moment. At the moment, pricing depends on pretty primitive methods.

EUROWEEK: How long can the exponential growth rates in bond issuance be sustained?

Bake, Deutsche: It’s growing from a very low base. You won’t sustain the rates of growth, but the absolute number will still keep growing. This is a fraction of the domestic CNY market — and it includes all the international issuers that are not present in the CNY market. The growth will remain exponential for a few years, and then it will level off. But in terms of critical mass, there’s a lot of upside. This market will grow to rival the Samurai bond market. It will not be a rival to the G3 bond market, but it will be a very strong complement.

Tang, HSBC: There is a still a big imbalance between supply and demand, and everyone predicts that deposits are going to keep growing exponentially in the next 12-24 months. That will help bond volumes keep growing for the next two to three years, unless there are any fundamental shifts in China’s economic development and outlook on RMB appreciation.

King, RBS: People always expect a market to grow quickly in its early phase, but what’s interesting is watching how the market matures as it keeps growing. It is natural that as volumes grow, the market will become disciplined as well.

Lau, PineBridge: The supply of CNH bonds is partly a function of offshore liquidity. We have seen a lot of issuers come to the CNH market over the last few months who have not been able to borrow onshore. But changes in the onshore market — either the government loosening lending restrictions, or getting stricter on remittances — could have a big impact on supply in Hong Kong.

  • 11 Jul 2011

Bookrunners of International Emerging Market DCM

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
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1 Citi 19,628.25 101 7.91%
2 HSBC 18,727.38 146 7.55%
3 JPMorgan 18,558.41 89 7.48%
4 Standard Chartered Bank 16,316.66 103 6.58%
5 Deutsche Bank 11,500.06 60 4.63%

Bookrunners of LatAm Emerging Market DCM

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
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4 Morgan Stanley 2,678.21 7 9.61%
5 Santander 2,138.87 10 7.67%

Bookrunners of CEEMEA International Bonds

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
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2 Citi 10,072.22 29 11.41%
3 Standard Chartered Bank 9,331.24 32 10.57%
4 HSBC 6,479.00 27 7.34%
5 Deutsche Bank 4,875.44 9 5.52%

EMEA M&A Revenue

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5 Citi 95.36 35 5.16%

Bookrunners of Central and Eastern Europe: Loans

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2 MUFG 780.58 3 15.13%
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Bookrunners of India DCM

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1 Standard Chartered Bank 1,783.30 14 17.83%
2 HSBC 1,156.32 12 11.56%
3 JPMorgan 1,015.66 11 10.15%
4 Citi 906.15 10 9.06%
5 Barclays 767.96 9 7.68%