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  • Asia vs. EEMEA: FX/oil prices edition

    Weaker Brent crude prices - especially in local currency terms - are likely to buoy Asia markets, and boost monetary easing. But it's a different story for EEMEA, according to a Bank of America report

    • 31 Jan 2012
  • EM currency rally: hold on tight

    The monetary policy/risk on-off dynamic holds the key as to whether EM currencies can continue their storming start to 2012

    • 31 Jan 2012
  • Direct impact of QE3 and LTROs on EM ‘will be limited’

    Further liquidity operations by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank won't directly result in a flood of capital to emerging markets, analysts suggest

    • 31 Jan 2012
  • US Fed: late to the inflation-targeting party

    By announcing a 2% inflation goal, the US Federal Reserve appears to be following in the foosteps of long-standing emerging market inflation targeters at a time when many are increasingly tilting towards growth

    • 27 Jan 2012
  • Jan 23-27: EM reads

    Our selection of emerging markets-focused commentary on markets, economics and international policy, updated throughout the week

    • 27 Jan 2012
  • Jan 27: A call to monetary arms

    Markets are betting that EM central banks will cut rates in earnest, but their capacity to act remains constrained by ongoing concerns over currency, capital flows and inflation

    • 27 Jan 2012
  • Message to emerging markets: prepare for QE3

    The US Federal Reserve has strongly hinted that it may sanction a further round of quantitative easing in the coming months, posing policy challenges for emerging markets

    • 26 Jan 2012
  • Brazil rates: how low will they go?

    Brazil’s central bank indicated that interest rates will fall below 10% this year, but how far they cut and for how long will depend on fiscal policy

    • 26 Jan 2012
  • Hungary: a temporary hiatus

    Hungary’s surprise rate hold does not suggest that Budapest is close to an agreement with the EU. Expect more rate rises, currency weakness and rising bond yields, analysts warn

    • 25 Jan 2012
  • The great Western bank deleveraging

    IIF sounds alarm on Western bank retreat from emerging markets, as capital flows are forecast to fall to $746bn this year

    • 25 Jan 2012
  • Apple's China charm offensive pays off

    China is the undisputed king of the Brics for Apple, highlighting the country’s huge – but all too often derided – consumption story

    • 25 Jan 2012
  • Revealed: the missing 25% of Angola's GDP

    The IMF has uncovered that a $32 billion accounting discrepancy in Angola's budget is linked to state oil firm Sonangol. A massive shift in Luanda's institutional framework and political culture is needed to weed out fiscal slippage

    • 25 Jan 2012
  • China Davos snub goes viral

    China's historic decision to miss the World Economic Forum is rich in symbolism and has stirred debate

    • 25 Jan 2012
  • Asean rate cuts: more aggressive than post-Lehman

    Thai rate cut highlights how monetary easing in the Asean region this year is set to outpace the post-Lehman maelstrom, according to Nomura.

    • 25 Jan 2012
  • IMF slashes emerging market growth forecasts

    The International Monetary Fund is the latest high-profile organisation to cut its EM growth outlook for 2012, but stopped short of a recession warning.

    • 24 Jan 2012
  • Eastern Europe slowdown warning belies recession risks

    The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts 3.1% GDP growth in the region in 2012, but warns that any worsening of the eurozone crisis could trigger recession

    • 24 Jan 2012
  • Indian central bank: no rate cuts without fiscal consolidation

    The Reserve Bank of India kept rates on hold, warning that fiscal consolidation is critical to create the space to cut rates without the imminent risk of resurgent inflation

    • 24 Jan 2012
  • Buffett sings for his Chinese supper

    Was Warren Buffett's appearance on Chinese TV over the weekend an attempt to reassure retail investors that China's market rally will continue?

    • 23 Jan 2012
  • Ominous omen: Israel cuts rates

    The move by Israeli central bank governor Stanley Fischer, a renowned monetary policy prophet, sugggests further rate cuts across EM

    • 23 Jan 2012
  • EM monetary policy: growth to the fore

    Investors are betting on a slew of EM rate cuts this year but FX volatility and stubborn inflation might spoil the stimulus party

    • 23 Jan 2012
  • Rising Asian demand ‘will cushion euro export blow’

    Asian export economies are now better insulated against a slowdown in Europe and the US than they were in 2008-9, according to new research

    • 23 Jan 2012
  • CIC’s Thames Water deal puts focus on Chinese reserves bind

    China's repressed financial system has heaped on the risk that the central bank will soon sit on large losses on its FX holdings, a fillip for SWF-led investments

    • 23 Jan 2012
  • Jan 20: Green shoots vs. yellow weeds

    The apparent decoupling between asset markets – EM equities, in particular - and continued macro stress this week is a source of optimism for some and fear for others. Take your pick.

    • 20 Jan 2012
  • Mexico pension funds: rolling in it

    Mexican pension funds – holding some $121bn of assets – have generated strong real returns in recent years and could provide a strong technical bid for domestic stocks

    • 19 Jan 2012
  • Indonesia “the India of two years ago”

    Warnings that loose monetary policy to turbo-charge growth to 7% could sow the seeds of a hard landing in two years time

    • 19 Jan 2012
  • EM equities: this time is different ... again

    Sell-side analysts are once again calling for emerging market equities to outperform, based on attractive valuations. Will they be right this time?

    • 19 Jan 2012
  • Greece woes mount as debt talks reach climax

    Crisis talks with private sector debt holders are reaching a climax, but even if a deal is reached, it will do little to resolve Greece’s chronic fiscal problems

    • 19 Jan 2012
  • IMF funding boost: over to you, China

    The bulk of the $600 billion in new funds sought by the IMF will have to come from large emerging economies. It's do or die.

    • 19 Jan 2012
  • Soaring oil costs 'could deepen Europe’s downturn'

    Currency weakness has driven energy costs in Europe to near-record highs, analysts warn

    • 18 Jan 2012
  • China property downturn gathers pace

    Further house price falls in December have heightened fears that a property crash will significantly drag down growth in 2012

    • 18 Jan 2012
  • World Bank issues emerging market recession warning

    A Lehman-type event in Europe or the US could shave more than 4% off GDP growth in developing nations, the World Bank has warned

    • 18 Jan 2012
  • Message from Vienna: time is running out

    A new Vienna Initiative is urgently needed to prevent financial system meltdown in Central and Eastern Europe, key stakeholders have warned

    • 18 Jan 2012
  • Saudi Arabia’s $100 crude bombshell

    Saudi Arabia’s move to keep oil prices at $100 a barrel highlights fiscal concerns and could have profound regional and global implications

    • 17 Jan 2012
  • China data point to soft landing, rising property risks

    China’s latest growth numbers should dispel fears of an imminent hard landing, but property concerns are beginning to bite

    • 17 Jan 2012
  • Vienna 2.0: all talk, no action. Yet

    Talks on a new Vienna Initiative to prevent banking sector collapse across Central and Eastern Europe have so far failed to yield concrete results

    • 17 Jan 2012
  • Hungary plays with fire

    The European Commission has launched legal proceedings against Budapest, raising the stakes in bitter negotiations over a financial rescue package

    • 17 Jan 2012
  • Egypt-IMF negotiations: this time it’s different

    The odds of a balance-of-payments crisis in Egypt are uncomfortably high, despite talks this week between the capital-starved nation and the IMF

    • 16 Jan 2012
  • India’s inflation fight: a temporary victory

    New figures show Indian inflation at a two-year low, but analysts warn that the structural drivers of price growth remain intact

    • 16 Jan 2012
  • Goldman: robust China demand to drive metals higher

    Goldman Sachs has forecast robust industrial commodity price growth in 2012, despite signs of a Chinese slowdown

    • 16 Jan 2012
  • CEE: hostage to eurozone fortunes

    Standard and Poor's decision to downgrade nine eurozone sovereigns has heightened the risks for Central and Eastern Europe, experts warn

    • 16 Jan 2012
  • Subsidy backlash highlights Nigeria policy bind

    The Nigerian government has partially reinstated fuel subsidies, throwing into sharp relief the limitations of its reformist push

    • 16 Jan 2012
  • Growth fears cast shadow over emerging world

    A slowdown across the emerging economies is all but inevitable in 2012, as policymakers grapple with both external and domestic pressures

    • 09 Jan 2012
Global Capital

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