Ethan Harris: Managing Director and Chief U.S. Economist, Lehman Brothers

Who will win the election?

  • 29 Oct 2004
Email a colleague
Request a PDF

Ethan Harris

Who will win the election?

Bush is a slight favorite for voters sticking with devil they know rather than the one they don't. We're in a quasi war-time economy that favors the incumbent.

 

What impact will it have on the bond market?

I think the election itself is a positive for the bond market to react to. It creates a lot of uncertainty for markets and a safe haven trade for bonds as people react to the possibility of a terrorist attack, negative campaigning and general uncertainty. All those factors favor asset allocation from stocks to bonds.

There's not enough specific proposals for the bond market to react to. Kerry says he's going to do a small tax increase but have a big medical care program. Bush's only program is that he said he would make tax cuts permanent and a vague thing about cutting spending. Their specific proposals imply a bigger deficit. It's hard to believe that there are going to be any spending cuts. Both candidates have a plan but what they'll actually do is anyone's guess.

  • 29 Oct 2004

All International Bonds

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • 24 Jul 2017
1 Citi 253,106.92 930 8.89%
2 JPMorgan 230,914.50 1036 8.11%
3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 221,389.46 762 7.78%
4 Goldman Sachs 171,499.26 554 6.03%
5 Barclays 169,046.60 646 5.94%

Bookrunners of All Syndicated Loans EMEA

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 HSBC 27,039.93 106 7.36%
2 Deutsche Bank 25,125.19 81 6.84%
3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 23,128.33 61 6.29%
4 BNP Paribas 19,315.94 110 5.26%
5 Credit Agricole CIB 18,706.93 106 5.09%

Bookrunners of all EMEA ECM Issuance

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • 18 Jul 2017
1 JPMorgan 12,578.87 55 8.17%
2 Citi 11,338.07 71 7.36%
3 UBS 10,682.06 44 6.93%
4 Goldman Sachs 10,419.53 53 6.76%
5 Morgan Stanley 10,194.88 57 6.62%