Ethan Harris: Managing Director and Chief U.S. Economist, Lehman Brothers

Who will win the election?

  • 29 Oct 2004
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Ethan Harris

Who will win the election?

Bush is a slight favorite for voters sticking with devil they know rather than the one they don't. We're in a quasi war-time economy that favors the incumbent.

 

What impact will it have on the bond market?

I think the election itself is a positive for the bond market to react to. It creates a lot of uncertainty for markets and a safe haven trade for bonds as people react to the possibility of a terrorist attack, negative campaigning and general uncertainty. All those factors favor asset allocation from stocks to bonds.

There's not enough specific proposals for the bond market to react to. Kerry says he's going to do a small tax increase but have a big medical care program. Bush's only program is that he said he would make tax cuts permanent and a vague thing about cutting spending. Their specific proposals imply a bigger deficit. It's hard to believe that there are going to be any spending cuts. Both candidates have a plan but what they'll actually do is anyone's guess.

  • 29 Oct 2004

All International Bonds

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • 13 Mar 2017
1 JPMorgan 94,925.33 384 8.39%
2 Citi 87,531.58 331 7.74%
3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 84,341.49 288 7.46%
4 Barclays 75,288.19 241 6.66%
5 Goldman Sachs 68,504.71 208 6.06%

Bookrunners of All Syndicated Loans EMEA

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • 16 May 2017
1 Deutsche Bank 19,381.65 47 8.82%
2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 18,968.25 36 8.63%
3 HSBC 18,103.95 50 8.24%
4 BNP Paribas 8,911.57 55 4.05%
5 SG Corporate & Investment Banking 8,885.00 54 4.04%

Bookrunners of all EMEA ECM Issuance

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • 23 May 2017
1 JPMorgan 8,714.26 35 8.36%
2 UBS 8,283.47 33 7.95%
3 Goldman Sachs 7,736.57 37 7.42%
4 Citi 6,897.11 46 6.62%
5 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 6,215.31 24 5.96%