Out of the frying pan, but Europe’s fire isn’t over
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Out of the frying pan, but Europe’s fire isn’t over

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Emmanuel Macron’s two-stage victory in the French presidential election rightly brought relief to the eurozone bond markets — as well as to all those who believe in the European project as a force for good. But talk of a Macron presidency opening the way for further European integration in the form of jointly issued eurozone bonds is far too early.

Macron’s win has led to renewed discussion about the creation of such bonds, a topic that had last been making big headlines at the height of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis a few years ago.

But unfortunately for cheerleaders of the potential product, it still appears to be nothing more than a pipe-dream in the near term, at least.

Germany is unlikely to alter its opposition to sharing liabilities at least until Angela Merkel wins — as looks likely — another federal election in September.

But even before then, Macron’s own mandate looks very weak.

An Ipsos poll suggests that 43% of those who voted for Macron did so only to stop far-right candidate Marine Le Pen taking power. Welcome news for anyone who feels that any option is better than a fascist one, but hardly a ringing endorsement of Macron’s own policies or European outlook.

There are also serious doubts about whether Macron will end up with sufficient legislative support for his proposals after France’s National Assembly elections in June.

To be clear, Macron’s victory over Le Pen was the best possible outcome from the situation Europe was facing and his pro-European stance makes further European integration and, perhaps, the as yet mythical shared eurozone sovereign bond, a little more likely.

But there is far, far more work to be done to be convince the populaces of the continent that such an approach is the best way forward.

And Le Pen’s increasing share of the voting — she received 7.7m votes in the first round this year, up from 6.4m in 2012, and added almost another 3m in Sunday’s second round — shows that disillusionment with the European project, and all the fiscal policies it entails, is growing.

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